Models, models…

I just found some hydrological models that can be used to predict soil moisture from fewer parameters. As the research area is small enough, some parameters can be considered as uniform across the area. Therefore I only need climate and DEM.

Then the moisture together with stream water quality can predict habitat preference. This will be cross-examined with WhyWhere prediction and ground truths.

Then I have habitat scores and can use them in CAPS model.

I need a `razor’

Yesterday we tutorial group had another session with the tutor. Before that I thought I made a plan that would work. But the tutor said it was still too complex. There are too many indicators to consider for a 3-month research.

Therefore I am going to look for a means to get habitat preference score using fewer indicator and maybe from aerial photographs.

I had a trail run of WhyWhere model this morning. Using vegetation data and coordinates from Google Earth, the model found 9 datasets in the area. Finally the model gave a model with only one variable: elevation. This may make some sense as it influence water table. For a small area like Dark Peak, other variables may not change too much. I will try to verify this in my trip.

But does it really know what species I am studying?

Data needs

For notes:

DTM
GIS map files including river channels, roads and present sphagnum distribution
Vegetation map by Moss (1913)
ESA Vegetation map by Defra and NVC
Burning map and temporal data
Stream Survey data
Nitrogen data (it is not in my plan. but may be an indicator of pressure)
UK Perspectives aerial photographs in 2001 and 2005

又要开始忙了

昨天和今天把论文的思路又理了一遍，更多地考虑了数据来源和整个计划的可行性，已经比较有底了。不过还有许多东西要读要想。
PDNP 的研究负责人原来也是个官僚……好多问题都不会答，就只会让我填数据申请表寄回去。又不好撕破脸皮，毕竟论文还要靠他们协助。只好今晚写好 proposal 后玩 Killzone 出口恶气。

社会科学研究方法的作业进入了最后的攻坚阶段……我们动手似乎确实比较早，好多人才开始选题和考虑方案。Livia 同学所在的组居然也选了和我们一样的题目。又要做竞争对手了……

Btw, Livia 就是把我拒了的那个女孩子。不过她要是不拒了我我倒真的要痛苦了。现在每周见一次，打个招呼，其实也不错。

Thoughts about dissertation

Luckily, the framework for the previous topic can largely be used in this topic.

But now I begin to doubt the suitability of WhyWhere model. How well can it simulate the distribution of Sphagnums? I will need the result for defining initial distribution and habitat preference. If it is not accurate enough, I will need a distribution map and various habitat parameters.

Besides, how do fire and overgrazing influence habitat characters and to what extent? How I change the parameters in the model? These remain questions and will need a lot of reading and thinking.

人品啊人品

差几个小时就错过奖学金申请网上提交的 deadline 了，还好今天想起来发信问学校关于 admission 的事，又还好 Mrs. Ashmore 及时给了我 admission，我才好去申请奖学金。
接下来，希望爱丁堡那边也能尽快确定录取吧。今晚发信问一下。

Change of dissertation topic

I have done a lot of work on the previous topic, so this change will bring me some loss. However, it is definitely better than realising everything does not make much sense at the very end of the project.

Invasive species is not quite an issue in PDNP, therefore I am going to deal with Sphagnum propagation. Many things I studied can still be used in this topic. Dr. Bonn from the moors for the future is quite positive on this new topic. However, I need to talk to her on Wednesday about details.

Damage

周五收到信，当天对那个女孩子说我 ``like you more than like a friend''。然后告诉她我正在试图逃脱这一切，希望她不要误会我。整个过程很顺利，不到5分钟。之后我们作为普通朋友道别，下周再见。
我达到了自己的目的，什么也没有获得，什么也没有失去。可是，为什么我会觉得难过呢？
C2 是学数学和生物信息学的，是一个比我 geeky 得多的人。但是爱情给他的打击却重得出乎我的想象。也许懂得爱情的人才会受这么重的伤。我其实很羡慕别人可以有这种伤痛的经历，甚至乞求获得这样一种爱情，哪怕结局是这种伤痛。现在，我似乎真的有一点类似的感觉了。
当天下午又看见她，在和几个人讨论小组 project，我在远处打开书包，把文件夹翻出来看下午 lecture 的安排，竭力止住好像要流出来的泪水。我为什么要流泪啊，一切其实都是我早已预料到并且期望的，难道只是为了让她觉得自己在我心里确实很重要吗？
……变色龙。

为了这件事周末很没有干正事的心情。今天下午讨论的时候才算恢复了一点状态。选择意味着获得也意味着失去。让她在我心里留下一个美丽的影子，其实远远好过将来不可避免的离别之痛。
所以就接受这一切，虽然不可能再回到去年9月23日以前的样子了。

又扔了一次帽子

刚发信给那谁谁，4句话的信写了20分钟。不过这件事情还是早解决比较好。天秤座的人最怕的是被误解和失去朋友，而这封信，也许可以避免这种情况的发生。最糟糕的后果，比现状稍微糟一些，不过相差不大。

Discussion about observation

Though just finished exam and did not really begin to read all those stuff, Kerry provided some quite interesting ideas. She will go on to search for more cases and see if there are more approaches on data interpretation.

The PhD proposal for Notts has to be submitted tomorrow or I will miss scholarship application. Though it is not a satisfying one I have to finalise it.

Other issues are moving smoothly. Though, I feel drowsy in the afternoon and evening when I was reading books. Perhaps it is because spring is coming....

What happened in academic terms today

I talked with Michael about the topic of the dissertation. As the research manager of Peak District National Park says pine invasion is not really an issue in the park, I think I need to change the topic to another invasive species, or follow the Moors for the Future research topic, to model Sphagnum propagation (which one to model is another question). I will call Dr. Bonn tomorrow to discuss this.

Besides, I got the feedback of my preliminary proposal by Roy. He wrotes that I need to make comments of the model, instead of only maps. I think I will discuss fire or air pollution disturbance and management options using the model and results. Another problem is how to test the model. I did not think about this until recent days. Historical data of species and disturbance distribution are needed as well as new ones.

My PARs for last term is acceptable, though not as good as I expected. It is only Merit level. I need to get higher scores this term to reach a Distinct Level. The main problems in the exams and assignments are lack of critiques and thorough understanding of the questions. Therefore I need to pay attention to these parts. It may need effort to be critical and one has to be aware whether he is critical or not. People tend not to be critical due to their slackiness.

The group began work today by sending out questionnaires. We had 51 questionnaires today, which is quite a success. Tomorrow I will talk to Kerry about observation. This part has problems remain and I need to refine it. The writeup has to be pended as the method is not solidified yet.

I got confirmation letter for Notts saying that they got my application pack finally. However I need to submit the RP for ORS application in 2 or 3 days. I will try to find Roy tomorrow. If that does not work I will need to write a final version of the dissertation tomorrow.

Progressing for dissertation

I spent a few hours reading a rather old book on Scots pine's ecology. Jack says it is the most authorative literature I can find. It does not matter how old it is. The mechanisms will not change in 50 years time.

I grabbed some useful information in this book, such as pine's interaction with Sphagnums and the influence of grazing and shrubs. Seems the last time I read it I did not read that carefully. These information also helps me think about the dissertation.

The validity of simulation can be examined by past data. I hope there are historical data available. Disturbances took place in this period also should be identified, at least the major ones.

On Monday I will call the research manager for Moors for the Future asking about data availability and fieldwork issues. Tuesday I think I will ask Jack about a preliminary field survey: what to look at.

There are a few good books on ecological modelling in the library. I did not have time today to read them all. I will check them out shortly. The literature review is progressing smoothly.

Task list…

(In priority order)

Literature review for dissertation
Dissertation proposal
Social Science project
Learn using CAPS and ArcGIS
Article for tusea (just edit)
Ecology & management short evaluation and poster
Remote Sensing technical review
Dissertation personal review (no need to submit)
PhD Research Proposal for Notts (almost done)

... Fight!

Go to the mattress!

今天到 Beeston 镇上的一间户外店里买了一个充气防潮垫，用来取代那张太软的床（睡得我背痛），回来的路上就不禁想起 the Godfather 里这句台词来。
开学以来又是一大堆作业，看起来几乎所有的课都把作业安排在3月中旬以前，在那之后就该忙着做论文的准备了吧。但是这段时间论文有关的文献也是不能不看的。所以这几天也就显得分外忙碌。
所以，大概又是 go to the mattress 的时候了。不过现在自己好像也比较习惯每天工作12小时的生活，每天下午抽时间锻炼半小时，周一攀岩半小时，其实还满平衡的。而且今天论文有了新的思路，看起来前途一片光明，道路也不太曲折了。爱丁堡那边已经收到了我的全部申请材料，admission 应该很快就会有了吧。
不过，偶尔在夜里的实验室，一个人看文献累了的时候，听着从国内带来的靡靡之音，还是会有孤单的感觉。虽然忙起来就会忘记这些，可是人总不能忙到累死。
常常觉得自己从来没有真正喜欢过谁。那种自以为是爱情的感觉其实不过是出于寂寞而已。所以，在这里不想对自己暗地喜欢的女孩有任何表示，那多半又是一种错觉。如果这真的是错过了什么的话，对她也不会有什么影响。不过，这种感觉还是不时地 eat me from inside。
好在还有朋友，还有工作。
我把 Gtalk 和 MSN Messenger 都暂时停了。有时候看到上面的好友来了又走反而徒增孤单的感觉。E-mail 至少还保留了一点书信的感觉，至少看到信箱里有朋友写来的信会很高兴。