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2008年2月19日星期二

A quick one: temperature as a slow variable

This week's Nature has a news article on Antarctic species threatened by increasing sea water temperature and invasive species utilising the new niche created by this high temperature.  In this instance sea water temperature as a slow variable is indirectly controlled by the fast variable: the carbon emission.  The system may flip to another state in which the previous ecosystem will be essentially eliminated.  In this sense the change is irreversible.

A similar effect will be observed in other systems, perhaps in a more subtle way.  The resilience theory suggests that such changes in slow variables may generate sudden changes in fast variables.  In most natural systems this will manifest itself as loss of niches, habitats and species.  As reverting a slow variable is also difficult, this can be considered as loss of these system's resilience.  To preserve current state, measures maintaining the fast variables or reverting their changes are possible, yet to preserve resilience, the slow variable must be restored.

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