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2009年8月12日星期三

Ecological network analysis: forgotten?

ResearchBlogging.org

A new [preprint article](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.07.012) pop up in *Ecological Modelling*'s RSS feed today, showing a case study using ecological network analysis in the functional assessment of an estuary ecosystem. I was wondering what is ecological network analysis, and how it assesses a system's function, so I read on.

It turns out that the technical details of ecological network analysis involves food web and information theory. The former I have some understanding, but the latter is too complex for me as a newcomer to dwell in the late night. [Here](http://www.fisheries.ubc.ca/files/ECOPATH%20IISoftwareForEcosystemModels%20_SmallerFileSize.pdf) is the paper describing the ECOPATH II model used by the preprint article. Judging from its number of being cited, many people must have used it successfully in their studies. However, the authors of the model acknowledged that it is based on a steady-state assumption, which arguably hardly exist in any real ecosystem, thus they recommend it used only in snapshot descriptions of ecosystems.

I doubt such a model can be used to describe ecosystem functions, considering that ecosystem functions do not present themselves in full in a "snapshot". The authors of the preprint article seem confident that this method at least identify ecosystem functions based on the goal of management defined by researchers and decision makers. But I think the role of artifacts and stochasticity in this is too significant to let pass.

In preliminary studies, I think this method has its use. If researchers can establish the food web structure and nutrient dynamics in a system, we may use this method to identify some key species or functions of the system. However, its results must be iteratively put back to our picture of the system, to check whether it conforms the dynamics and management goals. The method seems to work only with "pure" ecosystems, while many researchers have moved on to study social-ecological complex systems. I wonder if this is the reason why the method has been silent for all these years.

Christian, R., Brinson, M., Dame, J., Johnson, G., Peterson, C., & Baird, D. (2009). Ecological network analyses and their use for establishing reference domain in functional assessment of an estuary Ecological Modelling DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.07.012

Christensen, V., & Pauly, D. (1992). ECOPATH II — a software for balancing steady-state ecosystem models and calculating network characteristics Ecological Modelling, 61 (3-4), 169-185 DOI: 10.1016/0304-3800(92)90016-8

2009年1月3日星期六

在模型中虚拟理性人

在生态系统模型中加入对社会经济层面的模拟是个难题。一般来说,这种模拟要建立在实地调查的基础上,否则很难定量。今天的 Ecological Modelling 上发表的[一篇文章](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBS-4V9252X-2/2/5ddd2302b7b6a56c7ef7d34b6839fc7b)绕过了这个问题。作者用经济中的效用(Utility)作为经济系统模拟的目标变量,并假设系统中的人追求效用的优化,以此为出发点讨论经济系统对自然生产力的影响。

2008年9月30日星期二

Progress

Recently I have managed to derive a dynamic model for my research area, imitating a model proposed by Ludwig et al. (2002) [3.   D. Ludwig, B. H. Walker, and C. S. Holling. Resilience and the Behavior of Large-Scale Systems, chapter 2 Models and metaphors of sustainability, stability, and resilience. Island Press, Washington, D.C., 2002] for a rangeland.  Now I find that it is producing a range of interesting results.  More importantly, I think I can defy accusation that the model is manipulated to produce domains of attractions.  The hysteric behaviour and the appearance of domains of attraction/resilience are emerging from classic dynamic model functions, this is what I call fascinating.

The next step would be setting a range of scenarios, with different sets of parameters, see the behaviour and resilience of the system in these settings.

Furthermore, combining it with what I derived from remote sensing images collected for the last few decades, the model can go spatial to some extent.  Use the remote sensing image to determine the initial state for each pixel, run the model on them, with a specified parameter set for each type of pixels, the result may be very interesting.  Of course the computation would also be intense.  I need also to think about a) how do I verify the model and b) how do I parametrise the different situations for different pixels.