Using Carrying Capacity to manage rangelands -- Right or wrong?

Carrying capacity was completely a Western concept in rangeland management based on economic measurement of grass productivity and consumption of livestock.  As the Western management system was introduced to China, this concept is also prevailing in China's decision-makers' mind.  However, some argue it is not the appropriate approach to determine rangeland management policy in Tibet, because the natural disasters there require pastoralists to maintain mobility and increase the size of the herd whenever possible.  A settled range and given carrying capacity will leave the pastoralists vulnerable to natural disasters.

Even so, carrying capacity approach is employed in many places over Northern China.  Past records also show that Tibetan nomads use a similar system to regulate the number of sheep and yak.  But I am against using Carrying Capacity simply on Tibet's pastures.  In the past pastures are allocated every a few years, and the number of livestock is dynamically determined.  Western Carrying Capacity is based on industrialised management of rangeland, so presumably the rangeland will keep the productivity in a longer term.  Today's pastures in Tibet do not have either of these conditions.  Natural disasters or mismanagement may change the conditions of the pasture so they cannot maintain their productivity.  Thus it may not prevent degradation from overstocking.

Castaway

大概是因为疲劳。今天在办公室干活的时候，突然觉得很孤独。不知道可以跟谁说话，不知道想跟谁说话，好像没有人会关心我存在或不存在，我就这样一个人在一个陌生的没有人会跟自己说话的国度，活着。

这是一种很痛苦的体验。另一方面，我又似乎在劝说自己接受甚至享受这种孤独。一切似乎都是自己的选择。在朋友当中，只能跟少数人亲密无间，跟其他的人都保持着一些距离，没有什么事的话，平时是绝对不愿多说一句话的，大家都忙吧，不好意思让他们听我唧唧歪歪。而到了小岛上，结交新朋友的能力退化为0——实际上，我不知道自己可曾具有过这种能力。

就连上网逛个论坛吧，里面的人也只能让我有两种反应，要不敬而远之，要不就是懒得打字骂他们。我不由得怀疑自己的 taste 和 style，为什么就这么高不成低不就？

（因为心情不佳，对文盲的态度不好，这里深刻检讨，人家跟了我一点也不容易啊。）

大概我对朋友的要求也很完美主义，而且又不肯放下自己的那套所谓原则，更不愿冒着暴露自己性格爱好和浪费时间交不了活的风险跟人多说两句话，结果现在果然事实上流落荒岛了，连个排球也没有，活该。

以上不是反省，只是发泄。那些平常跟我只谈正事，在 MSN 上挂了几个月连句话也没有的，也别看见这个就来安慰我，我自己去看心理医生就好。

哼。

BBC NEWS | UK | Britain is 'surveillance society'

BBC NEWS | UK | Britain is 'surveillance society'

Thanks to /. which reminds me of this cruel fact: that I may have about 300 appearances on CCTV cameras per day.  UK is among the countries with most surveillance and privacy worst protected.  What is worse is that my keystrokes during working may well be recorded.  I would not blame my university without evidence but the fact that I am using pre-installed Windoze system on that machine is somewhat worrying.

This does not mean the US becomes a more lovely country.  It is not and never has been.  As the surveillance in the US is implemented by multiple agencies it can be more complicated and more powerful.  What is sure is that people are being terrorised so they accept total control anyway.

Remember, remember, the 5th of November

The Gunpowder Treason and plot;

I know of no reason why Gunpowder Treason

Should ever be forgot.

Ok, see who's the evil axis now...

27B Stroke 6: What's your terror score?

美国可能过去是个民主国家，将来也可能还是个民主国家，但是至少目前，在小布什和共和党右翼的统治下它不是。

这条新法案最可怕之处还不在于一个管理公民信息的庞大数据库，毕竟信用公司也有类似的东西，只是规模和覆盖面不同。它真正过分的地方在于，其一，你不知道它储存了什么样的数据；其二，你不知道哪些数据可能对你不利；其三，你无法起诉它不正当地使用了你的数据。现在这条法案可以绕过 Privacy Act，很显然今后的大规模国家监视系统也可以利用类似的方法绕过去——只要系统的数据采集、分析和提取使用在系统建成后没有人工干预即可。

从移民入境按指纹，到所谓的爱国者法案，再到这个恐怖分子评分系统，安全部门的触角已经太深地探入普通人的生活。美国的立法部门制定了一系列的法律确保这些以国家安全的名义进行的监视和歧视行为的合法性，却没有相应地制定新的能够保证权力不被滥用于损害公民基本权利的法律。与恐怖分子的行为比较，政府行为对普通人生活的损害实际上更大。每个人都生活在 FUD 中，其实也许这才是恐怖主义的目的。

信用公司的数据库充其量只能督促你尽快偿还信用卡上的债务，而许多人可以没有信用卡；而这个数据库的存在要求每个美国公民都要以白人基督教徒／天主教徒的方式生活，你不知道跟你的穆斯林邻居谈话会不会给你的“恐怖分子指数”加分，也不知道如果连续一个月在超市只买牛肉会不会引起 FBI 的怀疑。因为每个人都不知道到底什么样的行为是“类似恐怖分子”的，为了不自找麻烦，每个人就只有自我审查自己的一言一行。EngSoc 即将在美国实现了。

现在总算还可以庆幸自己当初懒得考 G，没去美国。不然我这样不吃猪肉，不信圣经，来自祖国大陆还在硬盘上存着巴勒斯坦人权组织拍的纪录片的人分数肯定低不了。但是，英国跟美国的亲密关系和它在 7.7 之后的态度也够让人失望了。从这个意义上说，V for Vendetta 也许不仅仅是漫画，也是1984式的政治寓言，遗憾的是改编的电影在我看来还是太软弱和肤浅，不足以体现 EngSoc 和 Bushism 的邪恶。

Week 6: Slow, yes, but progressing

This week's work mainly focus on environment of Tibetan pastures, more specifically, on climatic issues on the Plateau.

Though climate on a given area looks like a simple issue, it is not once you begin to ask questions.  My self-pointed objective on this sub-project is to understand a) what the climate(s) are like in Tibet; b) what the climates have been during the Holocene; and c) what are the implications of the historical and current climate on the pastoralism in the area?  Short-term climate events are also worth studying, which I have been doing since Thursday.

A main problem encountered during the literature review is very few materials on Tibet environment topic, and sadly a large unaccessible proportion in them.  Curse the Chinese database providers such as VIP and Wanfang Data!  There are many articles on climate change and Holocene climate histories out there, but I think their effects on pastoralism is what I need to independently and critically analyse.

The discussion with my supervisors are constructive, which I mentioned in another entry of the log.  One thing I strangely forgot to do is to draw a map of Tibet and my research area so that my audiences will understand the context better.  In the following 2 or 3 weeks I will finish this sub-project and a simple map as well.

An environmental picture in Tibet

Just now I had a talk with my supervisors.  Just like what Gandolf told Frodo, my first project is praised.  The following work will be a much larger project because there are many topics to explore.  However, it was pointed out that environmental issues, especially climatic ones, are very necessary for understanding of the historical and present problems in Tibet.

The work in next phase will be to write a detailed review of climate issues in Tibet.  What need to be included, I think, are as following:

• Holocene climate and geology/topography changes


• Environmental history, including important climatic events


• The impact of human initiatives on the environment


• How environmental factors form and impact pastoralism

Other issues raised during the meeting include making maps for the research area, finding interest groups working there, globalisation's effects on local economy, seeking oral history from grassroots and gov/expert points of view.  One interesting thing is that African countries such as Botswana has undergone similar "modernisation" process in 1970s, and the consequences are being revealed, which may be an interesting case study and comparison for my thesis.

Settle down

看文盲的 blog 上连载的川滇藏游记，别人看得有趣，羡慕，我却总看得胆战心惊。以前知道文盲既然决定要去，自己是拉不住的，但是知道她在川藏线上落水，发烧，淋雨，冒着塌方落石的危险奔进西藏，便很冲动地觉得即使拉不住也要阻止。看到她这样的遭遇，想到那时自己什么忙也帮不上，是件非常难受的事情。现在，如果她说要去什么地方，我的第一反应可能还是反对吧。

但是，这样做也太自私了一点……总不能为了自己心里安稳就这么限制她的自由，何况还不是短时间的事，是三年。

但是对我自己来说，东奔西跑也不再是生活的目的而只是一种手段了，以后我还是会很乐意为了学术的目的满世界跑，但除此以外，无论崇山峻岭还是大漠长河，对我都不再有吸引力了。既然有了一个家，那么除非为了让这个家更好，我是不愿远离它的。

也许这跟很多人对我的印象，甚至一段时间里我对自己的期望都非常不符合。可是如果回忆得再远一点，在我很小的时候，也是宁愿安守家中自己的一方天地的。后来开始喜欢出门，大概也只是为了能见到朋友，或者寻觅一段经历和感情。现在的我并不缺乏这些，也就不愿再仅仅为了经历而旅行。

也许是懒了吧，或者是最近坐班太习惯了。但我想，那个对读书和各种 hobby 乐此不疲的 nerd, 才是真正的自己。皓首穷经，也是我向往已久的生活。