I was considering writing an entry on the snow disaster recently took place in China and what can be done to reduce the loss and accelerate recover. But considering my position, it would be quite unethical to do so.
I'd like to point out that unlike many people's imagination, even if such disaster took place in some OECD countries with similar latitude and meteorological conditions, people would still be caught unprepared. Even in Midlands and South England, such heavy snows are rare. You can imagine what a turmoil there would be if such a snow hit London.
The real unique characteristic of the snow is that it has shown people how vulnerable **everybody** is, and how local disturbances impact the whole society. This can well lead to a sense of vulnerability, just like what nuclear tests and Chernobyl did to people in the West. What is different is that Chinese people obtained the sense not purely out of fear, but from their experience. On the other hand, there are report of other unusual snow events in other parts of the world, implying the possibility of a large-scale climate anomaly (La Niña maybe).
These are necessary prerequisites of the forming of a risk society, in which people are aware of risks and are prepared for it. In my opinion China is close to such a state. The exposure to hazard will increase as the mobility and fluidity of the society increases; the range and connectedness will be emphasised both by intensifying global change and the country's endeavour to be taken into global economics; the understanding of risks by people, as a result, will also be strengthened.
From an environmentalist's view this is hardly a bad thing. After all risks are always there after mankind altered the environment and their means of production so much, and people are just adapting themselves to more and more risks. But for decision makers, they should notice the unbalanced risk distribution over differing social classes; they should also be open to various voices in the face of a potential risk or actual crisis, and encourage the weak to express themselves by setting good communication channels. From the news report I have the impression that China has done a good job in these two aspects in this particular event.
Think about what other countries may learn from this disaster. You cannot at the same time worry about so many possible disasters. Yet it is possible to make the society more flexible so as to battle unexpected events. Doing so may require considerable investment. How do we measure investment and return so we know what kind of investment is adequate? One cannot measure things it does not expect, can one? Back to what I learn, targeting maintaining a certain degree of resilience could be a way to determine the investment for risk aversion and recovery from crisis.
2008年1月30日星期三
2008年1月25日星期五
一代人的伤
面对全世界对英国单调难吃的食物的指责，英国航空公司机上杂志的一篇文章所做出的辩白也许能代表大多数英国人在这个问题上的态度：英国曾经有不输欧洲许多国家的菜式，英国人也曾经热衷于在厨房花上数个小时烹调供全家共享的佳肴，然而二战期间和战后的物资短缺和人手缺乏让他们既没有原料也没有心思继续这样的传统。华丽的大餐让位给了快捷方便的 pocket potato 和其他油炸食品。刚看这篇文章时只觉得他们这样死要面子实在有趣，现在想起来，文章的作者落笔时恐怕有些辛酸。
Atonement 字面上的意思是弥补，赎罪，然而在我看来“罪”在这里只是提供了一个引子或者一个视角，让我们可以去检视一个曾经辉煌的国家在战争中承受的创痛。英国人的喜剧里充满了冷感的，含蓄的幽默；而这样一个沉重的题材里，他们也保持着特征般的冷静、含蓄和傲慢。当美国人的二战电影直接地、喧闹地展示他们的战争记忆的时候，英国人选择了像有尊严的老猫一样默默地舔舐自己的伤口。这里没有血肉横飞的奥马哈海滩，只有敦刻尔克绝望的狂欢；没有充满了呻吟和残肢的战地医院，只有悄声为爱人哭泣的英国护士。那些普通的英国人，是在可笑而徒劳地试图维持他们处变不惊的风度和优雅闲适的生活方式，这样的努力在战争阴云的笼罩下又让人觉得可悲又可敬。作为一个既没有经历过战争年代又没有深入了解英国文化的普通观众，我在电影散场后很久仍然深深地沉浸在敬畏的情绪里，恍惚间觉得自己也身处上世纪40年代的英国。我曾经参观过一个以英国普通人生活为主题的博物馆，其中相当一部分的藏品都是二战年代的，可惜即使自己走进复制的防空掩体，也难以想象在轰炸中提心吊胆的滋味；而这部影片，可算是让那些二战时候的人和物活了起来，甚至让一个外国来的年轻人都对那个年代产生了共鸣。
不愿对这样一部以情动人的影片做太多假装的技术分析，但是我想观众之所以产生对那个时代的共鸣，是因为它们或多或少地爱上了那些角色。能让观众产生对主要角色的代入感并不困难，而让观众对三个性格迥异的人物都产生牵挂和同情——其中还有一个犯下了不可饶恕的大错——是这部影片称得上杰出的一个成就。而且观众对角色的感情之发生仿佛是自然而然的，没有什么洒狗血的场面，只是通过表演，观众就知道谁在爱，谁在恨，而且跟他们一起爱一起恨。这样的表演是英国影片的魅力所在。英国人拍出了这样的电影，他们便无愧于自称莎士比亚的同胞，也无愧于二战中忍辱负重的先辈。
美国的好片总的说来比英国的多，比如最近的 There Will Be Blood 和 No Country for Old Men，然而它们是电影工业的产物，所以可以从技术的角度条分缕析。也正因为好莱坞的电影工业之成熟，所以他们可以大量地拍好片。但我以为在英国，电影的生产还保持着艺术家和匠人对待作品的态度，这样生产出来的电影有时候是失败之作，有时候只有少数人能够欣赏，但其中的佳作也如同其他的艺术品，不可以量化的方式或拆散成部件来欣赏。打个不恰当的比方，这就好像 iPod 和巨石阵的区别。iPod 的好，大可以具体化为触摸屏的好或者音频输出的好；而巨石阵的奇妙和美丽唯有作为一个整体，放置于英国荒原的特定环境之中方可体现。Atonement 也是一部技术上制作精良的电影，但带着对那个年代和那一代英国人的感情，投入地去体会他们作为整体的伤痛，或许才是享受这部影片的更好的方式。
Atonement 字面上的意思是弥补，赎罪，然而在我看来“罪”在这里只是提供了一个引子或者一个视角，让我们可以去检视一个曾经辉煌的国家在战争中承受的创痛。英国人的喜剧里充满了冷感的，含蓄的幽默；而这样一个沉重的题材里，他们也保持着特征般的冷静、含蓄和傲慢。当美国人的二战电影直接地、喧闹地展示他们的战争记忆的时候，英国人选择了像有尊严的老猫一样默默地舔舐自己的伤口。这里没有血肉横飞的奥马哈海滩，只有敦刻尔克绝望的狂欢；没有充满了呻吟和残肢的战地医院，只有悄声为爱人哭泣的英国护士。那些普通的英国人，是在可笑而徒劳地试图维持他们处变不惊的风度和优雅闲适的生活方式，这样的努力在战争阴云的笼罩下又让人觉得可悲又可敬。作为一个既没有经历过战争年代又没有深入了解英国文化的普通观众，我在电影散场后很久仍然深深地沉浸在敬畏的情绪里，恍惚间觉得自己也身处上世纪40年代的英国。我曾经参观过一个以英国普通人生活为主题的博物馆，其中相当一部分的藏品都是二战年代的，可惜即使自己走进复制的防空掩体，也难以想象在轰炸中提心吊胆的滋味；而这部影片，可算是让那些二战时候的人和物活了起来，甚至让一个外国来的年轻人都对那个年代产生了共鸣。
不愿对这样一部以情动人的影片做太多假装的技术分析，但是我想观众之所以产生对那个时代的共鸣，是因为它们或多或少地爱上了那些角色。能让观众产生对主要角色的代入感并不困难，而让观众对三个性格迥异的人物都产生牵挂和同情——其中还有一个犯下了不可饶恕的大错——是这部影片称得上杰出的一个成就。而且观众对角色的感情之发生仿佛是自然而然的，没有什么洒狗血的场面，只是通过表演，观众就知道谁在爱，谁在恨，而且跟他们一起爱一起恨。这样的表演是英国影片的魅力所在。英国人拍出了这样的电影，他们便无愧于自称莎士比亚的同胞，也无愧于二战中忍辱负重的先辈。
美国的好片总的说来比英国的多，比如最近的 There Will Be Blood 和 No Country for Old Men，然而它们是电影工业的产物，所以可以从技术的角度条分缕析。也正因为好莱坞的电影工业之成熟，所以他们可以大量地拍好片。但我以为在英国，电影的生产还保持着艺术家和匠人对待作品的态度，这样生产出来的电影有时候是失败之作，有时候只有少数人能够欣赏，但其中的佳作也如同其他的艺术品，不可以量化的方式或拆散成部件来欣赏。打个不恰当的比方，这就好像 iPod 和巨石阵的区别。iPod 的好，大可以具体化为触摸屏的好或者音频输出的好；而巨石阵的奇妙和美丽唯有作为一个整体，放置于英国荒原的特定环境之中方可体现。Atonement 也是一部技术上制作精良的电影，但带着对那个年代和那一代英国人的感情，投入地去体会他们作为整体的伤痛，或许才是享受这部影片的更好的方式。
2008年1月24日星期四
刀是什么样的刀？
在想我的室友们还欠我多少钱网费的时候，我想到了这个平时只有蛋疼才会考虑的问题：美刀为什么要叫 dollar 呢？
看了一下某pedia[1] 和 Encyclopedia Britainnica Online[2], 大概得到了答案。en.w 上的文章好像比 EB 的还要详细一些，虽然有的地方看起来很混乱。大体说来，dollar 这个词今天的模样是美国先民们以讹传讹的结果，其原文是 _Thaler_ ，是德文中的 Thal (tal) 和英文中的 dale 的合成词。这个词又来源于一种1515年开始发行的 -捷克- 波希米亚钱币 Guldengroschen (Great Guilder)，因为它是用Joachimsthal 这个银矿的产品铸造而成，所以群众又管它叫 Joachimsthaler 或简称 thaler。久而久之很多不同国家的钱币都叫做 Thaler 了，其中包括荷兰的daalder。荷兰人将其带到在美洲的殖民地，到17世纪荷兰 daalder - lion dollar 已经在荷兰和英国的美洲殖民地中流通了。
18世纪中叶 lion dollar 被西班牙的 _real de a ocho_ 和后来相当于 8 real 的比索取代。但殖民地的人们出于习惯还是称西班牙货币为 Spanish dollar。1792年美国正式将“刀”作为主要货币单位。值得注意的是据说17世纪的苏格兰也有 dollar 一词的使用，莎士比亚作品中也多次用这个词表示钱财，但苏格兰用的这个词究竟是来源于新大陆还是从旧世界的德语演变而来，两个 pedia 都语焉不详，我也没有能力去考证了。至于其他国家作为货币单位的 dollar，有些很可能是在英美殖民时期受的影响所致，有的也许是纯粹的模仿，也可能有的是从 thaler 直接演化而来——又是无法考证了。
EB 还很八卦地给出了1美元到10,000美元面值钞票上的头像都属于哪位名人的对照表。不过这一番索隐最有意思的当然不是像 National Treasure 里那样分析1块钱纸币上藏着什么玄机。首先 dollar 这个词的流传至今就证实了语言学上的一个论点：远离语言中心的语言发展变化较慢，一个词的寿命甚至超过了它曾经承载的 meme。今天的德国人或者捷克人在说这个词的时候，恐怕都不会想到这个词竟然跟捷克境内的一条河谷和一座银矿有关了。当然，dollar 一词的长寿也与它被体制化、正统化有关。其次，现在看来 dollar 作为全球化的象征物是实至名归，它不仅成功地搭上了全球化的第一趟班车——欧洲的殖民扩张，更重要的是它在此之前就已经成为欧洲广大地区的货币的共同名称，考虑到当时的欧洲还远远没有像现在这样一体化，几乎都是城邦制国家，dollar 能做到这一点也实在是非常厉害。
虽然美国对于 dollar 这个词已经成为新的语言中心，对这个概念的别称也是层出不穷，像什么 buck，fish，(frog)skin，smackeroo 之类，可以肯定的是 dollar 还将作为正统的货币名称存在很长的时间。不过像 Phil K. Dick 那样，设想一下许多年后的美国货币叫什么，也是件很有意思的事（他笔下的美国钱叫 skin，而且好像真的是某种动物的皮……）。
fn1. Dollar. (n.d.). Wikipedia. Retrieved January 24, 2008, from Answers.com Web site: "http://www.answers.com/topic/dollar":http://www.answers.com/topic/dollar
fn2. ``dollar'': (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 24, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: "http://www.search.eb.com/eb/article-9030828":http://www.search.eb.com/eb/article-9030828
看了一下某pedia[1] 和 Encyclopedia Britainnica Online[2], 大概得到了答案。en.w 上的文章好像比 EB 的还要详细一些，虽然有的地方看起来很混乱。大体说来，dollar 这个词今天的模样是美国先民们以讹传讹的结果，其原文是 _Thaler_ ，是德文中的 Thal (tal) 和英文中的 dale 的合成词。这个词又来源于一种1515年开始发行的 -捷克- 波希米亚钱币 Guldengroschen (Great Guilder)，因为它是用Joachimsthal 这个银矿的产品铸造而成，所以群众又管它叫 Joachimsthaler 或简称 thaler。久而久之很多不同国家的钱币都叫做 Thaler 了，其中包括荷兰的daalder。荷兰人将其带到在美洲的殖民地，到17世纪荷兰 daalder - lion dollar 已经在荷兰和英国的美洲殖民地中流通了。
18世纪中叶 lion dollar 被西班牙的 _real de a ocho_ 和后来相当于 8 real 的比索取代。但殖民地的人们出于习惯还是称西班牙货币为 Spanish dollar。1792年美国正式将“刀”作为主要货币单位。值得注意的是据说17世纪的苏格兰也有 dollar 一词的使用，莎士比亚作品中也多次用这个词表示钱财，但苏格兰用的这个词究竟是来源于新大陆还是从旧世界的德语演变而来，两个 pedia 都语焉不详，我也没有能力去考证了。至于其他国家作为货币单位的 dollar，有些很可能是在英美殖民时期受的影响所致，有的也许是纯粹的模仿，也可能有的是从 thaler 直接演化而来——又是无法考证了。
EB 还很八卦地给出了1美元到10,000美元面值钞票上的头像都属于哪位名人的对照表。不过这一番索隐最有意思的当然不是像 National Treasure 里那样分析1块钱纸币上藏着什么玄机。首先 dollar 这个词的流传至今就证实了语言学上的一个论点：远离语言中心的语言发展变化较慢，一个词的寿命甚至超过了它曾经承载的 meme。今天的德国人或者捷克人在说这个词的时候，恐怕都不会想到这个词竟然跟捷克境内的一条河谷和一座银矿有关了。当然，dollar 一词的长寿也与它被体制化、正统化有关。其次，现在看来 dollar 作为全球化的象征物是实至名归，它不仅成功地搭上了全球化的第一趟班车——欧洲的殖民扩张，更重要的是它在此之前就已经成为欧洲广大地区的货币的共同名称，考虑到当时的欧洲还远远没有像现在这样一体化，几乎都是城邦制国家，dollar 能做到这一点也实在是非常厉害。
虽然美国对于 dollar 这个词已经成为新的语言中心，对这个概念的别称也是层出不穷，像什么 buck，fish，(frog)skin，smackeroo 之类，可以肯定的是 dollar 还将作为正统的货币名称存在很长的时间。不过像 Phil K. Dick 那样，设想一下许多年后的美国货币叫什么，也是件很有意思的事（他笔下的美国钱叫 skin，而且好像真的是某种动物的皮……）。
fn1. Dollar. (n.d.). Wikipedia. Retrieved January 24, 2008, from Answers.com Web site: "http://www.answers.com/topic/dollar":http://www.answers.com/topic/dollar
fn2. ``dollar'': (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 24, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: "http://www.search.eb.com/eb/article-9030828":http://www.search.eb.com/eb/article-9030828
2008年1月23日星期三
2008年1月17日星期四
Dryland crisis and resilience
Crisis in the Drylands: Scientific American
If you do not want to be unpopular, just remember to criticise Mr. Bush and his ``War on Terror''. However, after we attribute conflicts to everything from imperialism to terrorism, from religion to civilisation, I am glad to see finally some opinions which reflect on the trapped, or failure state in many arid areas, from a different aspect which has very little to do with politics and military. The article states that:
The article gracefully followed this issue by discussing what is the cause of these areas' unfavourable state, why military approach is not working and what economic and environmental measures should be taken to salvage these areas and people. The measures include solving water shortage, increasing productivity, building infrastructures and establishing export market. However, to apply the article's suggestion without consideration to all arid environments in such crisis may not be justified. As each area have differing situation and conditions, and the history before they fall to the undesirable state may be worthy looking at.
I would argue that resilience, and afterwards adaptive cycle and panarchy, can be used as a framework when studying such problems. The objective of improvement, is not only bring people out of poverty, but also ensure that they do not fall into poverty again when another drought or war strikes, i.e. make them more resilient to changes.
To achieve this, one question must be answered is "what state on earth is the system in?". If we use the ball and basin analogy, we say the system is "trapped" in a state because there is some forces that stop the system from shifting state, just like the terrain around a basin stops the ball from falling out. These forces may be brought by the interactions of slowly and fast changing variables. The article in SA noticed fast changing variables but often the slow ones are more fundamental.
It can be very tricky to find the slowly changing variable, especially in a complex system. An examination of the system's history sometimes can help. By identifying different periods when the system is more organised or chaotic, or when it is more resilient or more rigid, and compare variables we can get hold of, we may be able to identify slowly changing variables. We can also identify significant changes in the history and examine its impact. This is where the adaptive cycle comes into play. The problem with this approach, however, is that the measures of resilience, connectedness and capital (the three dimensions in the cycle metaphor) are still quite subjective nowadays. But comparison and qualitative analysis is possible.
From the adaptive cycle we can find out how the slowly changing variables influenced the resilience, connectedness and capital varied throughout the history, god-willing, we will be able to tell how they influence the system today. The next step, given slowly changing variables, is to optimise fast changing variables so as to change the shape of the "basin" so the "ball" can fall into a better basin (if any, that is) than the current one.
Back to measures proposed by the SA article, they are all trying to change the fast changing variables, such as water availability and grassland productivity. However without knowledge of slowly changing variable, such as soil texture, organic content, and/or precipitation, such manipulation may well be futile. Not to mention there are also socioeconomic factors in play, e.g. local customs, the psychology of local people and occupant, and the impact of foreign culture. These are even more intriguing to define and quantise.
In a word I think it is correct to begin to address dryland crisis from environment and economy sector instead of military and ideology ones. Yet the frustrating complexity should be covered if long term interest of the system is desirable. So far the most promising helper seems to be the resilience/panarchy network.
If you do not want to be unpopular, just remember to criticise Mr. Bush and his ``War on Terror''. However, after we attribute conflicts to everything from imperialism to terrorism, from religion to civilisation, I am glad to see finally some opinions which reflect on the trapped, or failure state in many arid areas, from a different aspect which has very little to do with politics and military. The article states that:
Washington looks at many of these clashes and erroneously sees
Islamist ideology at the core. Our political leaders fail to realize
that other Islamic populations are far more stable economically,
politically and socially—and that the root of the crisis in the dryland
countries is not Islam but extreme poverty and environmental stress.
The article gracefully followed this issue by discussing what is the cause of these areas' unfavourable state, why military approach is not working and what economic and environmental measures should be taken to salvage these areas and people. The measures include solving water shortage, increasing productivity, building infrastructures and establishing export market. However, to apply the article's suggestion without consideration to all arid environments in such crisis may not be justified. As each area have differing situation and conditions, and the history before they fall to the undesirable state may be worthy looking at.
I would argue that resilience, and afterwards adaptive cycle and panarchy, can be used as a framework when studying such problems. The objective of improvement, is not only bring people out of poverty, but also ensure that they do not fall into poverty again when another drought or war strikes, i.e. make them more resilient to changes.
To achieve this, one question must be answered is "what state on earth is the system in?". If we use the ball and basin analogy, we say the system is "trapped" in a state because there is some forces that stop the system from shifting state, just like the terrain around a basin stops the ball from falling out. These forces may be brought by the interactions of slowly and fast changing variables. The article in SA noticed fast changing variables but often the slow ones are more fundamental.
It can be very tricky to find the slowly changing variable, especially in a complex system. An examination of the system's history sometimes can help. By identifying different periods when the system is more organised or chaotic, or when it is more resilient or more rigid, and compare variables we can get hold of, we may be able to identify slowly changing variables. We can also identify significant changes in the history and examine its impact. This is where the adaptive cycle comes into play. The problem with this approach, however, is that the measures of resilience, connectedness and capital (the three dimensions in the cycle metaphor) are still quite subjective nowadays. But comparison and qualitative analysis is possible.
From the adaptive cycle we can find out how the slowly changing variables influenced the resilience, connectedness and capital varied throughout the history, god-willing, we will be able to tell how they influence the system today. The next step, given slowly changing variables, is to optimise fast changing variables so as to change the shape of the "basin" so the "ball" can fall into a better basin (if any, that is) than the current one.
Back to measures proposed by the SA article, they are all trying to change the fast changing variables, such as water availability and grassland productivity. However without knowledge of slowly changing variable, such as soil texture, organic content, and/or precipitation, such manipulation may well be futile. Not to mention there are also socioeconomic factors in play, e.g. local customs, the psychology of local people and occupant, and the impact of foreign culture. These are even more intriguing to define and quantise.
In a word I think it is correct to begin to address dryland crisis from environment and economy sector instead of military and ideology ones. Yet the frustrating complexity should be covered if long term interest of the system is desirable. So far the most promising helper seems to be the resilience/panarchy network.
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2008年1月16日星期三
Year of Planet Earth
This week's [*Nature*](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v451/n7176/) magazine has provided a chunky supplement under the title ``Year of Planet Earth'', discussing earth science topics relevant to global changes. I have not got time to read all articles in this supplement, yet [this one](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v451/n7176/full/nature06590.html) I read is of high quality. Its analysis of Westerlies is related to my current research.
2008 is the second year in the three consecutive years' span of International Year of Planet Earth. The aim is to promote earth science studies and identify the role of earth sciences in the society. More information can be found at [the year's website](http://www.yearofplanetearth.org/).
2008 is the second year in the three consecutive years' span of International Year of Planet Earth. The aim is to promote earth science studies and identify the role of earth sciences in the society. More information can be found at [the year's website](http://www.yearofplanetearth.org/).
2008年1月14日星期一
做游戏：三十九页第七行
在 [NullPointer 的 blog](http://www.inblogs.net/npchen/2008/01/blog-post_14.html) 上看到的，5本书的第39页第7行：
- 请打开离你手边最近的一本书。找到并写下第39页第7行的一句话。
At first Leo could not place any woman named White.
- 请打开你最喜欢的一本书。找到并写下第39页第7行的一句话。（其实最喜欢的书不在现在的住处，只好找本现有的最喜欢的书了）
一只早起的画眉在我驾车经过林中小径时，送来了一个两个乐音。
- 请打开随意一本外语书。找到并写下第39页第7行的一句话。（我这里多的是外语书，桀桀桀）
... [A]nd conjunction which is founded on this technology's potential power to provide a `doorway to other worlds'...
- 请打开书架最上一排上左数第一本书。找到并写下第39页第7行的一句话。（最上一排放 CD，取第二排第一本）
... said the patient, his accent more befitting the *Quai d'Orsay* than *Le Bouc de Mer*.
- 请打开封面是你最喜欢的颜色的一本书。找到并写下第39页第7行的一句话。
莱因霍尔梅森纳尔和彼德哈卜勒在没有使用氧气的情况下登顶了珠穆朗玛峰。
有兴趣的话，你可以接着玩下去……
- 请打开离你手边最近的一本书。找到并写下第39页第7行的一句话。
At first Leo could not place any woman named White.
- 请打开你最喜欢的一本书。找到并写下第39页第7行的一句话。（其实最喜欢的书不在现在的住处，只好找本现有的最喜欢的书了）
一只早起的画眉在我驾车经过林中小径时，送来了一个两个乐音。
- 请打开随意一本外语书。找到并写下第39页第7行的一句话。（我这里多的是外语书，桀桀桀）
... [A]nd conjunction which is founded on this technology's potential power to provide a `doorway to other worlds'...
- 请打开书架最上一排上左数第一本书。找到并写下第39页第7行的一句话。（最上一排放 CD，取第二排第一本）
... said the patient, his accent more befitting the *Quai d'Orsay* than *Le Bouc de Mer*.
- 请打开封面是你最喜欢的颜色的一本书。找到并写下第39页第7行的一句话。
莱因霍尔梅森纳尔和彼德哈卜勒在没有使用氧气的情况下登顶了珠穆朗玛峰。
有兴趣的话，你可以接着玩下去……
2008年1月13日星期日
No country for old men
这片子的宿命感十分强烈。所有人都在沙漠里混吃等死，还美其名曰为了生存。就连我们“正义”的两位男主角，也一个整天带着不义之财东躲西藏，一个只会在下属面前卖弄经验。相比之下，倒是人人谈之色变的杀手，活得很有目的，是个“有原则的人”。不过就连他，最后也要很宿命地遇上点劫难。这有点像银河映像的《暗花》，不同的是这部片子里根本就不存在什么幕后人物。
片子很颓废，但是观众仍然看得非常紧张。因为杀手遇到的90%的人都死了，但是观众们都很关心现在画面里这个人是否能成为幸运的10%，或者概率更小更刺激的，这个人能否在杀手面前上演一出扮猪吃老虎的好戏。然而杀手似乎并不给那个人这样的机会，他的每句话都在将面前的人逼入绝境。观众们也只好在椅子边缘屏息等待杀手出手的刹那……
这一刹那的冲击力随着凌厉的剪辑和音效体现得淋漓尽致。片子里长于10秒的镜头很少，但一旦出现一定是强调荒凉或者积蓄爆发前的张力，真正动手的一刻，猝不及防，而后镜头又立即转到下一个故事或者支线，绝无拖沓。不知道这样的剪辑是无间道在先还是科恩兄弟首创，但我看这片子时从椅子上跳起来两次，是从记事以来绝无仅有的观影经历。音效里没有明显地卖弄影院的 n.1 环回立体声，但影院里人人都可以感受到那种从正面逼近的震慑，有如子弹直击眉心。
就连影片的结尾也让人措手不及。在连串的暴力后，刚看到一点家居生活还没有回过味来，影片就结束了，留下观众在座位上发呆。是的，不如说影片没有结局。这再一次强化了影片中的宿命论观点，生活中的个人不像每一部影片中的英雄一样，都可以在紧要关头反败为胜打得坏人满地找牙抱得美人归，更多的时候人们无力反抗或者不敢反抗，只有留下无尽的悔恨和一辈子的自责。
我以堂堂七尺之躯，走在从电影院到家那段走了无数次的夜路上，第一次感到心里没底。
片子很颓废，但是观众仍然看得非常紧张。因为杀手遇到的90%的人都死了，但是观众们都很关心现在画面里这个人是否能成为幸运的10%，或者概率更小更刺激的，这个人能否在杀手面前上演一出扮猪吃老虎的好戏。然而杀手似乎并不给那个人这样的机会，他的每句话都在将面前的人逼入绝境。观众们也只好在椅子边缘屏息等待杀手出手的刹那……
这一刹那的冲击力随着凌厉的剪辑和音效体现得淋漓尽致。片子里长于10秒的镜头很少，但一旦出现一定是强调荒凉或者积蓄爆发前的张力，真正动手的一刻，猝不及防，而后镜头又立即转到下一个故事或者支线，绝无拖沓。不知道这样的剪辑是无间道在先还是科恩兄弟首创，但我看这片子时从椅子上跳起来两次，是从记事以来绝无仅有的观影经历。音效里没有明显地卖弄影院的 n.1 环回立体声，但影院里人人都可以感受到那种从正面逼近的震慑，有如子弹直击眉心。
就连影片的结尾也让人措手不及。在连串的暴力后，刚看到一点家居生活还没有回过味来，影片就结束了，留下观众在座位上发呆。是的，不如说影片没有结局。这再一次强化了影片中的宿命论观点，生活中的个人不像每一部影片中的英雄一样，都可以在紧要关头反败为胜打得坏人满地找牙抱得美人归，更多的时候人们无力反抗或者不敢反抗，只有留下无尽的悔恨和一辈子的自责。
我以堂堂七尺之躯，走在从电影院到家那段走了无数次的夜路上，第一次感到心里没底。
2008年1月11日星期五
Follow up: on fertilising the ocean
I have written an entry on the topic Ocean Iron Fertilisation to sequestrate carbon. A group of scientists provides their opinion and claim that more experiments will be needed before we can use the technology and incorporate it into carbon trading system:
ENVIRONMENT: Ocean Iron Fertilization--Moving Forward in a Sea of Uncertainty -- Buesseler et al. 319 (5860): 162 -- Science
ENVIRONMENT: Ocean Iron Fertilization--Moving Forward in a Sea of Uncertainty -- Buesseler et al. 319 (5860): 162 -- Science
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Who's driving?
GEOPHYSICS: Daggers Are Drawn Over Revived Cosmic Ray-Climate Link -- Pasotti 319 (5860): 144 -- Science
Some climate change skeptic argue that holding a mainstream view, scientists do not allow opinions other than human-induced climate change to be discussed on. Well, that is conspiracy theory again. Some researchers proposed that climate change may be due to changed geomagnetic field. Although this has been dismissed long ago, the group of researchers say they will carry on to find more evidences and give more solid proofs. Now their idea is published on Science.
This is why we call research of climate change a scientific process: always open to disagreement and debates. The accusation that mainstream voices in science world are abusing the rights of expression is not well-grounded.
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2008年1月9日星期三
Better, but not a solution yet
I think I am a bio-fuel advocate-turned-skeptic now.
Both NewScientist and SciAm report that a native North American perennial grass, switch grass Panicum virgatum can produce 540% of the energy used to grow it. It has been naturally growing at field margins in U. S. for years, yet recently become a new focus in bio-fuel development. Without doubt its efficiency in producing energy beats the criticism that bio-fuel growing is not energy-efficient. It even has nearly permanent underground root system that offset 94 percent of the greenhouse gases emitted to cultivate it and from derived ethanol. Neat isn't it?
However I think environment aware farmers will face certain dilemma when they decide whether to plant it or not. By definition it can be grown on marginal land without intensive care. But it would take many households' yield to form a quantity that is worth further process. The ethanol yield on a field is 2,000 to 3,500 litres/ha, which about equals to 1,300 to 2,250 litres of petrol (using data from here and here). For an average truck that carries the grass from a farm to refinery, the fuel supports it to run for 860 to 1,500 kilometres (using 2005 data from here). There was not an estimate of farm-refinery data that I can find, but this report claims that local food travels on average 56 miles to reach institutional market, convert this to kilometres and times 2, the travel from a refinery to a farm and back along takes about 180 kilometres. This part was not calculated in the model used to calculate net energy yields. Considering that the bio-fuel production is very distributed, it is necessary to incorporate this into the analysis. If the switchgrass is really grown on marginal land, it is very possible that the collector will need to travel more miles before obtaining adequate amount of raw materials for production.
If the grass is grown in field scale, not on marginal land, problems for other bio-fuel plants also exist: investment of land and water, fertilizers and so on. Like all technology, it is dangerous if people are too obsessed and invest their land and money blindly on the switchgrass. With a similar unit area ethanol yield to corn, it still will take considerable land to make the production practical and profitable. The discovery itself is remarkable. But it will not be the single solution to energy problem in the US, nor should it become an excuse to put more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Both NewScientist and SciAm report that a native North American perennial grass, switch grass Panicum virgatum can produce 540% of the energy used to grow it. It has been naturally growing at field margins in U. S. for years, yet recently become a new focus in bio-fuel development. Without doubt its efficiency in producing energy beats the criticism that bio-fuel growing is not energy-efficient. It even has nearly permanent underground root system that offset 94 percent of the greenhouse gases emitted to cultivate it and from derived ethanol. Neat isn't it?
However I think environment aware farmers will face certain dilemma when they decide whether to plant it or not. By definition it can be grown on marginal land without intensive care. But it would take many households' yield to form a quantity that is worth further process. The ethanol yield on a field is 2,000 to 3,500 litres/ha, which about equals to 1,300 to 2,250 litres of petrol (using data from here and here). For an average truck that carries the grass from a farm to refinery, the fuel supports it to run for 860 to 1,500 kilometres (using 2005 data from here). There was not an estimate of farm-refinery data that I can find, but this report claims that local food travels on average 56 miles to reach institutional market, convert this to kilometres and times 2, the travel from a refinery to a farm and back along takes about 180 kilometres. This part was not calculated in the model used to calculate net energy yields. Considering that the bio-fuel production is very distributed, it is necessary to incorporate this into the analysis. If the switchgrass is really grown on marginal land, it is very possible that the collector will need to travel more miles before obtaining adequate amount of raw materials for production.
If the grass is grown in field scale, not on marginal land, problems for other bio-fuel plants also exist: investment of land and water, fertilizers and so on. Like all technology, it is dangerous if people are too obsessed and invest their land and money blindly on the switchgrass. With a similar unit area ethanol yield to corn, it still will take considerable land to make the production practical and profitable. The discovery itself is remarkable. But it will not be the single solution to energy problem in the US, nor should it become an excuse to put more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
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2008年1月6日星期日
Reform along the other line
SCIENCE AND GOVERNMENT: Revolutionizing China's Environmental Protection -- Liu and Diamond 319 (5859): 37 -- Science
Along the lines of economic and political reform, reform in another most-ignored-so-far aspect -- environment, is proposed as a new agenda in China's eleventh five-year plan. Although there have been efforts to incorporate environmental considerations into the country's development before, we still see accelerating pollution, depleting resources and a few environmental catastrophes in the past year.
The article discusses what should and can be done. It suggests reforming the administrative system, re-introducing public Green-GDP auditing, as well as a change in the development model, though the last point is barely explained. However, the implement of these suggestions are almost as difficult as political reform, as it involves the basic systems of how things work. Basically, these measures will need a bigger, more powerful State Environment Protection Agency, if not as powerful as EPA in the Simpsons Movie. It needs to be an enforcer rather than an adviser, and its branches not responsible to local government but directly to SEPA and local people. It should also have as much a say as the National Bureau of Statistics in whether and how Green-GDP and loss from environmental problems should be calculated and published. These roles are not possible in a single-hierarchical system, in which one big government has the final say in affairs of every sector on every level and uses only monetary measurements of performance.
In terms of development model, officially the attitude of the State is that China is not following developed countries which pollute first and treat the pollution later. But in a micro-scale, industries are still walking down this path. Still, the SEPA can do very little with these matters. There are crackdowns and bans on polluting bodies, but that is after the pollution or even environmental disasters. The monitoring and auditing of environmental performance is almost a blank, as there is no law requesting such report to be provided by the industry on a regular basis. There is neither requirement of development of cleaner production technologies in regulations or policies. After the initial environmental impact assessment, the industry is left to do what it likes as long as it maintains the status approved by the initial, possibly incomplete and faulty EIA report, until something breaks.
The article also calls for more transparency in the report of environmental qualities and measurements. Again this is very difficult if local EPAs are just a advisory attachment to the local government and too many interests are interlocked. The grassroots are becoming a potential force of environment protection in China. Nevertheless from a scientist's view it is better if they have their own expertise and some knowledgeable figures to lead their action.
I think, at least something can be done to make environment more relevant in China. In legislation, it would be desirable if regular environmental monitoring/auditing is regulated as a mandatory practice, and continual improvement a recommended measure of business social responsibility. As a student of relevant subjects, I also hope that private sectors are allowed to join the SEPA in establishing a healthy environmental auditing and consulting network, which is able to improve numerous industries' environmental profile, as well as creating many jobs and contribute to the economy.
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2008年1月3日星期四
用 Yahoo! Pipes 优化重组 RSS feed
好吧，我知道这可能是 Pipes 最土最容易想到的应用了。不过我前几天在被堆积如山的来自 BBC 和 The Economist 以及 lifehacker 的 feed 困扰时居然也没有想到这点。
我使用的 Pipes 部件都比较简单，无外乎收集 feed，关键词选择以及时间控制，最多加上一个 union。实现的功能主要是从一系列相同主题的站点中搜集 feed 并按关键词挑选出我想看的内容，时间太久没有时效性的就 block 掉。如此以来我需要用来了解天下大事的时间就大大减少了，而且在 Google Reader 里总的 feed 数量减少到6个，也就意味着鼠标的点击和等待时间都减少了，yay！
目前发现的问题是像 blogbus 这样逆历史潮流而动使用 GB2312 编码的 feed 在通过 pipes 后无法被正确识别编码，也许 Pipes 应该加入对编码的识别，或者加个 iconv 部件？从一般 html 页面生成 feed 的能力很赞，不过目前还没有搞清楚怎样导入。
我发布了一个 [Science News pipe](http://pipes.yahoo.com/pipes/pipe.info?_id=pgygETW63BGsYmvXJhOy0Q)，内容是 Nature、Science、NewScientist、Scientific American 和 Slashdot Science section 的有关环境和生态学研究的新闻，欢迎使用、克隆、改进之。
我使用的 Pipes 部件都比较简单，无外乎收集 feed，关键词选择以及时间控制，最多加上一个 union。实现的功能主要是从一系列相同主题的站点中搜集 feed 并按关键词挑选出我想看的内容，时间太久没有时效性的就 block 掉。如此以来我需要用来了解天下大事的时间就大大减少了，而且在 Google Reader 里总的 feed 数量减少到6个，也就意味着鼠标的点击和等待时间都减少了，yay！
目前发现的问题是像 blogbus 这样逆历史潮流而动使用 GB2312 编码的 feed 在通过 pipes 后无法被正确识别编码，也许 Pipes 应该加入对编码的识别，或者加个 iconv 部件？从一般 html 页面生成 feed 的能力很赞，不过目前还没有搞清楚怎样导入。
我发布了一个 [Science News pipe](http://pipes.yahoo.com/pipes/pipe.info?_id=pgygETW63BGsYmvXJhOy0Q)，内容是 Nature、Science、NewScientist、Scientific American 和 Slashdot Science section 的有关环境和生态学研究的新闻，欢迎使用、克隆、改进之。
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